Merdeka Center survey: Perikatan will make progress on BN’s seats; but the status quo for six state governments | Malay Post

KUALA LUMPUR, August 11 — Perikatan Nasional (PN) is expected to make further progress in Malay seats in Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu at the expense of Barisan Nasional’s main party Umno, and also according to the independent polling organization Merdeka Center, Negeri Sembilan’ It can also take a few chairs. said today

However, the Merdeka Center said its poll of voters in the six leading states shows that the PN will likely hold three states, while the Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Peace Nasional (BN) coalitions will likely hold the three states. .

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“Considering the survey results and combining our assumptions regarding the distribution of undisclosed voters, we predict the outcome of the state elections to be as follows: Status quo outcome in six states. Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu will remain in the hands of PN while Penang, Selangor and Negeri Sembilan will continue to be held by PH/BN. it will.”

Citing its survey, Merdeka Center said that PN will make further progress in Malay constituencies in Kedah and BN’s incumbent seats in Kelantan and Terengganu.

“PN may make small gains in a handful of seats in Negeri Sembilan, but PH/BN will not threaten the position of the state government,” the statement said.

As for Selangor and Penang, the state seats where Malay voters make up 70 percent to 90 percent of the electorate are “heavily contested and currently seen as ‘too close'”, but both state governments will remain firmly with PH and BN. , said.

In the survey, Merdeka Center found that PN was preferred for 66 percent of Malay voters polled in Kedah, followed by Terengganu (57 percent), Kelantan (50 percent), Penang (49 percent), Selangor (46 percent). . percent) and Negeri Sembilan (32 percent).

On the other hand, 40 percent of Malay voters surveyed in Negeri Sembilan wanted PH and BN to form their state government, followed by 37 percent (Selangor), 28 percent (Penang), 26 percent (Kelantan), 24 percent. percent (Terengganu) and 17 percent (Kedah).

The rest of the Malay voters in the poll were either unsure or refused to reveal their preferences.

Looking at the two states where Merdeka Center also interviewed Chinese and Indian voters, the survey revealed that 49 percent of all-ethnic voters in Selangor wanted PH and BN to be the government, as opposed to 36 percent of those who chose PN; In Negeri Sembilan, 59 percent chose PH and BN, and 18 percent chose PN. The rest were again unsure or refused to say their choices.

Based on these findings, Merdeka Center said that Malay voters’ strong and clear preference for PN in the Malay-majority states of Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu indicates that PN will “probably gain more ground” in Malay seats there at the expense of Umno and PH.

While polls show that PN will maintain and marginally increase its share of the Malay vote in all six states, these PH gains would be “inadequate” for the coalition to take over the three PH-held provinces of Selangor, Penang and Negeri. Sembilan said Merdeka Center.

He also said the findings show that broad voting patterns along ethnic and regional lines during the 15th general election (GE15) in November 2022 remained largely in place in the six state elections in August 2023.

Regarding the expected election results, the Merdeka Center said that the two main coalitions (PH/BN and PN) should guide voters who are still undecided on their side and persuade core voters to vote, especially in parts of Penang. and the mixed ethnic regions of Selangor and Kedah.

Young Malay voters in the poll continue to strongly favor PN, as in GE15 in November 2022, while non-Malay voters continue to unequivocally support PH, but there are many questions as to how many will come to vote. .

The Merdeka Center also said the PN had substantial majority support in Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu, which undermined the coalition’s confidence in out-of-state Malay voters coming back to vote for them.

The Merdeka Center conducted the survey from July 3 to August 11, before voting day for the state elections tomorrow.

He interviewed 501 Malay voters in Kedah, 702 Malay voters in Penang, 501 Malay voters in Kelantan, and 504 Malay voters in Terengganu.

He also interviewed 1,005 voters (57% Malay, 27% Chinese, 16% Indian) in Negeri Sembilan and 2,966 voters (53% Malay, 33% Chinese, 15% Indian) in Selangor.